Fiscal Outlook Report
Histórico
Períodicidade: Semestral2° Semestre
The Fiscal Outlook Report presents forecasts for the main Central Government fiscal variables in a 10-year horizon. The report provides disaggregated estimates for primary revenues and expenditures, as well as for Central Government and Public Sector primary balances, and scenarios for Brazilian public debt, especially for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) concepts.
The document also provides debt sensitivity and sustainability analyses and forecasts for their main determinants (borrowing requirements and interests).
In its seventh edition, this Fiscal Projections Report presents and discusses medium-term projections for the main fiscal variables of the Federal Government with the objective of sharing with society relevant reflections for a better understanding of the current panorama of the Federal Government's public finances. In addition to the recurring content, it presents two boxes, namely: one box the recent trajectory of the collection of tax revenues from PIS/PASEP and COFINS and another box dedicated to the impact of Constitutional Amendment No. 136/2025 (EC 136/25) on the Federal Government budget, especially resulting from changes in the treatment of expenses with court judgments, with an impact on the calculation of the expenditure limit and on the measurement of compliance with the primary result target.
A challenging scenario is projected for the management of fiscal policy in the coming years, with an expectation of an increase in public debt in the short term and stabilization in the medium term, given the macroeconomic scenarios and maintaining the fiscal consolidation effort, which requires the adoption of measures to recover revenue or review expenses.
Anexos
- Fiscal Outlook Report n7 December 2025 - Statistical Annex.xlsx (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet - 66.7 KB)